Courage under attack
The Age
Now isn't the easiest time to negotiate the job market, but the statistics suggest all is not lost.
What a difference a year makes. While job seekers started last year in the driver's seat, with their choice of jobs and rising salaries, the year ended with talk of recession, lay-offs and rising unemployment.
And this year's job market is promising to be much less friendly than anything we have seen in years.
How unfriendly? That depends on who you talk to. Most economists or job market specialists agree the outlook is not as cheery, but there is little consensus on how much unemployment might rise, how tight the job market might get and when it will recover.
"I think if you got 10 experts and economists in a room, they'd all come up with different figures," says Lincoln Crawley, the managing director of recruitment firm Manpower Australia and New Zealand.
"We're in extraordinary times, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a gap between predictions and actual job figures."
All agree the unemployment rate is rising, and has further to go. The most recent figure released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics was 4.4per cent in November, a 0.1percentage point rise on the previous month. Estimates for how high unemployment might go range from the federal Treasury's prediction of a 5 per cent rate in 2009, to the Melbourne Business School's prediction of 8 per cent by 2010.
Hays Recruitment's Grahame Doyle says the unemployment figures, and the speculation around them, do not give a true picture of the situation.
"If you look at the last results, while there was a 0.1 (percentage point) increase in unemployment, (most economists) were predicting a 0.2 (percentage point) rise, so they were 50 per cent out," he says. "Permanent jobs actually increased. The rise was driven by a decrease in part-time roles."
IBISWorld analyst Richard Jeremiah agrees the unemployment figure can be confusing. IBISWorld believes the unemployment rate will rise to about 7.5 per cent by mid-2010, with the job market and economy improving during that year.
"This obviously looks at odds with the employment situation improving throughout 2010, but the reason for this is as the economy starts to pick up, more and more people join the labour force in the hope of finding a job," Mr Jeremiah says.
On the upside, says CommSec economist Craig James, the fact that the job market has been so tight for so long may help employees hold on to their jobs for now.
"We're expecting unemployment to be 5.25 per cent by early 2009 and rise to maybe 5.5 per cent," he says. "Compared with history, these are relatively low levels.
"Businesses don't act in a knee-jerk way and we're expecting job hoarding, with employers holding on to existing staff.
"If they let staff go and then need to rehire them in six months, that's a significant cost," he says.
But there is no getting around the fact that jobs will be lost this year and there will be less on offer for job seekers. The beleaguered finance sector seems the area with more jobs to shed.
"Banking is not good," MrJeremiah says. "They will keep cutting, probably focusing on the middle man, rationalising hierarchies, cutting down management levels and squeezing more out of people. We're expecting around 1800 jobs to go in investment banking."
The chief executive of Dun & Bradstreet, Christine Christian, says graduates are also heading into uncertain waters as employers lookto hire more experienced candidates who can stretch their abilities further.
"Many uni students over the last five to eight years were confident that they could get a job and be choosy," she says. "That trend has been reversed. (Graduates) need to be a lot more realistic about their skills.
"Businesses are going back to basics, focusing on good business-management skills and looking for individuals that have worked through these times before."
The job-hopping lifestyle that has characterised the modern workforce might not be completely off the agenda either, as companies look to hire more contract and temporary workers, Mr Crawley says.
"Organisations will still have to do work," he says. "They will not be so willing to put on permanent staff. Employees are going to have to be more flexible, that's the big message."
Win some, lose some
According to IBISWorld, the winners and losers in the job stakes for 2009 will be:
Winners
Waste disposal services - the rubbish always needs to go out and increasing environmental concerns will push more recycling services.
Online information services - as more people turn to the web for information, more people will be required to analyse and churn out data.
Biotech workers - a growing sector that employs a diverse range of people.
Non-building construction such as roads and bridges - government spending on infrastructure should buoy this sector.
Cosmetic retailing - in bad times, consumers turn to small luxuries such as lipsticks and make-up.
Losers
Banking and finance, particularly foreign institutions - more jobs will go as bad debts rise.
Real estate - a flatter market will mean fewer jobs and smaller commissions for agents.
Boat building - boats are an expendable luxury for many when finances are tight.
Tyre makers - a declining local car industry and drop in sales will affect the demand for tyres.
Airline workers - travel will be treated as a luxury that can be sacrificed.
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Published: 17 January 2009
