Survive and thrive
The Age
It could be the worst of times for the unlucky, or the best of times for the fortunate.
The workplace experiences of 2009 are likely to vary dramatically for individuals, depending on whether they are in or out of the workforce.
The employment rate is about 95.5 per cent but economists predict it will fall by a couple of percentage points during the year.
After the horror stories we heard last year, that doesn't sound too bad, does it?
But those 2 percentage points mean more people will lose their jobs this year than live in the whole of the Northern Territory or Hobart.
If the economists are correct, the official unemployment rate will rise to 6.4 per cent of the workforce, which means about 768,000 people out of work.
This is like closing down Hobart, Canberra and Darwin. Everything and everyone, including the retired and children. And this is just an economic prediction.
If you take into account the wholesale failure to accurately predict last year's events, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the figure could be higher.
Another couple of percentage points would equate to just about the whole of the South Australian workforce being out of a job.
One possible reaction might be to turn to crime. But the predicted increase in unemployment represents about 10 times the number of people now in jail in Australia.
If you want some idea of how overcrowded the jails would become, try commuting to work courtesy of Connex.
Of course, such figures tend to miss the impact of underemployment or the impact on the self-underemployed and those who may depend on them.
The potential economic hardships are fairly obvious but there can also be a range of psychological impacts. Some are predictable, such as stress, depression, relationship difficulties and anxiety. Others are less obvious.
For instance, the erosion of confidence in job security for those who are still employed may lead to more conservative career development strategies such as staying put, taking on extra duties for no extra pay or not seeking promotion.
People who have lost their jobs or are close to those who have may well have a tense and difficult year.But for those who are convinced their jobs are safe, it will be very different.
For many in this situation, the year provides possibly unprecedented opportunities to establish a sound career reputation or, for others, to seek rapid promotion.
Organisations that have downsized still need people to do the work and those that have restructured need people to succeed in the new structures.
You may well find yourself with fewer colleagues to compete with, or fewer managers to wait in line behind and perhaps a broader set of responsibilities providing more opportunities.
New entrants into the workforce may find their paths to bigger roles less encumbered than they have been for their predecessors for a decade. It could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for rapid promotion.
This two-speed work environment calls for different strategies to survive and thrive, and in the coming weeks I will outline strategies for both those in work and those who want it.
Jim Bright is a professor of career education and development at ACU National and a partner at Bright and Associates, a career management consultancy.
Email ladder@brightandassociates.com.au.
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Published: 17 January 2009
